In less than a year on the 7th May 2027, the electorate will go to the polls for the 2027 Northern Ireland Assembly elections, to elect 90 Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs). Elections in Northern Ireland use a form of proportional representation known as Single Transferable Vote (STV). This voting system compared to First Past the Post (FPTP) which is used in Westminster elections, is fairer and allows for a greater representation of the electorate, due to it’s preference ranking system and less vote wastage. Whilst giving smaller parties a fairer chance of their candidates being elected.
The current political landscape – Spring 2026
Below is both the most recent LucidTalks voting intentions polling from Spring 2026 and the total vote share of Northern Ireland Political parties during the 2022 NI Assembly Elections.
Source: https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/news/lucidtalk-belfast-telegraph-ni-tracker-poll-spring-2026/
(Description: Above is a bar graph which breaks down the Spring 2026 NI Assembly voting intentions poll, Sinn Fein is on 24%, Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) on 18%, Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) on 13%, Social democratic Labour Party (SDLP) Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) and Alliance on 11% each, Greens on 5% and People Before Profit (PBP), Aontu and independent/other on 2% each.)
% of vote share and seat distribution – 2022 NI Assembly Election.
Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/northern-ireland/results
(Description – Above is a bar chart showing both political parties total vote share and total number of seats at the 2022 NI Assembly general election.
Sinn Fein has 29% of the vote and 25 seats, Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has 21.3% of the vote and 25 seats, Alliance has 13.5% of the vote and 17 seats, Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) has 11.2% of the vote and 9 seats, Social Democratic Labour Party (SDLP) has 9.1% of the vote and 8 seats, Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) has 7.6% of the vote and 1 seat, People Before Profit (PBP) is on 1.1% of the vote and 1 seat, independent/other on 3.7% of the vote and 2 seats and finally Greens and Aontu are on 1.9% and 1.5% of the vote respectivly but have zero seats each.)
Analysis.
It is important to note that these Assembly voting intention polling is a year out from polling day, and that a lot can change politically in Northern Ireland in a year. Further the LucidTalk polls only consider first preference voting intention of only a small dataset of around 3000 responses, and does not consider role of vote transfers that are often the deciding factor of election results under STV.
But it never less gives an insight into both current public opinions of political parties and how the make up of the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive could look this time next year, especially when compared with the vote share of the 2022 NI Assembly election.
From this spring 2026 prediction, Sinn Fein would remain the largest party in the NI Assembly, being again awarded with First Minister. With the DUP taking 2nd place and remaining to hold the Deputy First Minister post. Although the posts are equal in all aspects, except name. It is worth noting that as it stands it looks like Sinn Fein will remain the largest party after overtaking the DUP at the 2022 Assembly Elections.
It is interesting to note that the voting intentions amongst Unionists has become increasingly split with the UUP (going from 11.2% to 13%) and the TUV (going from 7.6% to 11%), at the expense of the DUP (Going from 21.3% to 18%)
In the centre ground it seems Alliance’s bounce in the polls in the 2022 Assembly election may be dimminshed slightly (13.5% to 11%) as it seems voting intentions have shifted slightly towards the moderate unionist and nationalist parties, the SDLP and UUP or potentially the greens.
On the nationalist side, the SDLP have gained in support (from 9.1% to 11%), at the expense of Sinn Fein who have went down in popularity (29% to 24%). Other small nationalist parties such as PBP and Aontu have also possibly benefited from this seeing increases in popularity.
The most interesting aspects of the next Assembly election to watch will be the battle for the third largest political party, whether the SDLP can get the 10% vote share required to enter the NI Executive again, and who will go into official opposition?
Further so far (As of May 2026) some veteran MLAs have announced they will not seek re-election such as Mike Nesbitt (UUP) and Kellie Armstrong (Alliance), it will be interesting to see how this will affect certain political parties seat share in certain constituencies.
Lastly constituency boundary changes by the electoral commission NI, including Foyle, East Londonderry, North Antrim, Upper Bann and South Belfast & Mid Down. Could lead to political shifts particularly in the North West.
Further depending on what political parties enter the next Executive and which party takes what ministerial portfolios, it could significantly influence policy prioritises in the 9 executive departments and subsequently what legislative changes through a programme of government to expect.
Conclusion
All in all, whilst the Northern Ireland Assembly election and local council elections are almost a year away, hence the political landscape and voting intensions could change significantly between now and then, coupled with the obvious margin of error plus limitations of such polling surveys and predictions. Nevertheless the political landscape could shift significantly through becoming more fragmented, potentially representing a level of discontent amongst the electorate due to the political instability and lack of legislative action in recent years. And as always a new mandate can often alter Executive legislative priorities and bring forth a new programme of government.